Market Mind Games- by Denise Shull of the ReTHINK GROUP

1. We do what we do because we expect the things we want to occur as the result. Likewise we also dont do what we dont do because we expect that if we did, things would happen that we expect would be unpleasant.
2. Expectations about the future, particularly how we imagine we will feel, serve as the cornerstone for deciding.
3. Read Nassim Taleb  Black Swans
4. Probabilities tell us something but not everything.
5. Measurable uncertainty is risk, unmeasurable uncertainty is uncertainty.
6. The process of selecting a portfolio may be divided into two stages
1. Start with observation and experience and end in beliefs about the future performances of available securities
2. starts with the relevant  beliefs about the future portfolios- Read Markowitz to understand the second step.
7. You make money by correctly predicting the opponent's future perceptions not the facts.

What will the other players perceive in the future?

Numbers is language and not law.

Success is a skill not a destination

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